Impact Trust • Working glossary

Scenario analysis / scenarios

Developing multiple plausible stories about how the future might unfold – not to predict but to stress-test strategies and expand thinking about what’s possible.

Details

Our Take
One of the oldest and most established foresight tools; Shell pioneered it in the 1970s. Accessible and widely understood. The key message: scenarios aren’t predictions, they’re thinking tools.
Examples of Use
Shell, RAND, foresight community, Horizon 2045
Synonyms/Variants
Scenario planning; What-if analysis; Future narratives; Strategic scenarios
Typical everyday wording
Imagining different futures to test whether your plans would survive them.