Fateful miscalculation / underestimation of climate risk

Names the problem that makes all other planning unreliable. The Pakistan case study is devastating: the World Bank's 'worst case' was exceeded within a year of publication. The UK actuarial profession has publicly acknowledged this failure. Any planning based on 'best available' climate projections is almost certainly too conservative. Preparedness requires imagination beyond what models tell you.

Consistently underestimating how bad climate change will get